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The Remaining Races

by on Oct.05, 2009 @ 11:44 am, under NPB

In order for the Eagles to end the season in second place:

Hawks go 2-0 over their last 2 games

The Eagles will need to win 4 of their last 6 games

Hawks go 1-1 over their last 2 games

The Eagles will need to win 3 of their last 6 games

Hawks go 0-2 over their last 2 games

The Eagles will need to win 2 of their last 6 games

The schedules for the two teams are as follows:

10/5 10/6 10/7 10/9 10/10 10/11
Eagles vs Buffaloes
at Kyocera Dome
vs Marines
at Chiba Marine
vs Marines
at K-Stadium
vs Buffaloes
at K-Stadium
vs Fighters
at Sapporo Dome

at
K-Stadium

Hawks vs Buffaloes
at Yahoo Dome

Should be an interesting week for the Eagles.  And all they need is 4 wins.

The Eagles are 17-4-1 against the Buffaloes this season and 4-1 over their last 5.  Against the Marines, the Eagles are 12-10-0 and have won their last 8 straight against the team from Chiba.  Head-to-head against the Hawks, the Eagles are 13-10-0.

The ideal situation would perhaps have the Eagles go 4-0 over their next 4 games.  Based on the numbers, that would seem somewhat possible.  But a 3-1 record is probably more realistic and would require the Eagles to win just one more game against either the Fighters or Hawks, assuming the Hawks beat the Buffaloes on 10/6.   And with that, I'd say that there's a fairly good chance that second place won't be decided until the very last game of the season.

===

In order for the Swallows to end the season in third place:

Tigers go 3-0 over their last 3 games

The Swallows will need to win all 6 of their remaining games

Tigers go 2-1 over their last 3 games

The Swallows will need to win 5 of their last 6 games

Tigers go 1-2 over their last 3 games

The Swallows will need to win 4 of their last 6 games

Tigers go 0-3 over their last 3 games

The Swallows will need to win 3 of their last 6 games

The schedules for the two teams are as follows:

10/5 10/6 10/7 10/8 10/9 10/11
Swallows vs Giants
at Jingu
vs Bay Stars
at Yokohama
vs Bay Stars
at Jingu
at
Jingu
at
Jingu
vs Dragons
at Jingu
Tigers vs Carp
vs Mazda Stadium


The Swallows are a dismal 4-18-1 against the Giants this season.  And while they haven't done much better against the Bay Stars (9-13-0), 5 of their 9 wins against Yokohama have come in their last 5 matchups.  And while the Swallows do have have winning records against both the Tigers (13-9-0) and Dragons (12-11-0), if it comes down to having to win all three of their games against these two teams, I think you can more or less write-off the Swallows' season.

Working backwards from the 2-game series with the Tigers...  Assuming they split the series and the Tigers beat the Carp on 10/7, based on the chart above, the Swallows will still need to win all four games against the Giants, Bay Stars, and Dragons.  That's a fairly tall order considering the Swallows haven't won a single game against the Giants since 8/21 (a span of 9 games).

The Swallows certainly have their work cut out for them.