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Yomiuri Giants have an 85% shot at making Climax Series?

by on Apr.12, 2010 @ 12:00 pm, under NPB

Sponichi has posted an article that claims the Yomiuri Giants have a 60% shot at winning the CL and an 85% chance at getting to the Climax Series. Short of some injuries to key components to players in the starting line-up, it doesn't seem too far of a stretch to give the Giants such great odds at finishing in third place or better.

The thing that interests me more than the Giants right now though, are the Marines. It's still early in the season. And so far, it seems everything that can go right for the team, has been going right. They're also in front of the pack -- they're averaging 5.78 runs and 10.11 hits per game while giving up only 3.61 runs on 8.56. And they've only given up two unearned runs.

Compare that with the rest of the league:

Team R ER Diff
Lotte 65 63 2
Seibu 75 72 3
Rakuten 72 66 6
Nippon Ham 73 66 7
Orix 76 68 8
Softbank 99 87 12

Figuring that about 9-10 runs is equal to a win, the Hawks have lost out on at least one game in the W column for their 12 unearned runs (the Pythagorean Theorem for the Hawks showed that 8 fewer RA would have equaled another expected win). But they also happen to be +2 in win differential so perhaps it balances out.

Here are the Pythagorean Standings for the 2010 season so far:

Central League

Actual Expected
Team W L WPCT W L WPCT W Diff
Yomiuri 10 5 667 10 5 664 0
Chunichi 9 6 600 8 7 507 +1
Yakult 8 7 533 8 7 557 0
Hanshin 7 7 500 7 7 500 0
Yokohama 6 9 400 6 9 411 0
Hiroshima 4 10 286 4 10 314 0

Pacific League

Actual Expected
Team W L WPCT W L WPCT W Diff
Lotte 12 5 706 12 5 703 0
Seibu 9 8 529 8 9 449 1
Orix 9 8 529 8 9 475 1
Softbank 9 9 500 7 11 381 2
Rakuten 7 10 412 9 9 500 -2
Nippon Ham 5 11 312 8 9 474 -3

A quick note about the Fighters that might help explain their 3 win differential:

They are 1-3 in 1-run games this year.
They had leads and either lost or tied a game in the bottom of the 9th or extra innings 2 times (both times against Lotte).

Incidentally, the Eagles are 1-5 in 1-run games and have lost one game in the bottom of the 9th.

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