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A statistical look at Guiel and D’Antona (and Aoki), Take Two

by on Jun.04, 2010 @ 3:29 am, under NPB

Ok, I went back and crunched the numbers to include OPS (as well as a few other numbers).

Through 51 games:

D'Antona 2009 164 15 38 8 23 45 9 .232 .273 .433 .706 3.6 18.2
2010 169 17 37 8 30 65 16 .219 .284 .408 .692 2.6 10.6
Guiel 2009 153 20 42 8 33 33 13 .275 .349 .529 .878 4.6 11.8
2010 159 23 34 13 26 42 25 .214 .369 .478 .847 3.8 6.4
Aoki 2009 186 28 48 5 23 28 24 .258 .364 .414 .778 6.2 7.8
2010 200 22 59 5 19 33 22 .295 .377 .415 .792 6.1 9.1

And the combined stats of the three players:

D+G+A 2009 503 63 128 21 79 46 108 .254 .331 .455 .786 4.7 10.9
2010 528 62 130 26 75 63 140 .246 .346 .432 .778 3.8 8.4

Here's the offense without the three players:

2009 1140 124 297 16 102 85 203 .259 .315 .355 .670 5.6 13.4
2010 1160 102 270 12 83 76 230 .246 .290 .319 .609 5.0 15.3
Diff +20 -22 -27 -4 -19 -11 +27

I thought it might also be interesting to throw in the following:

Err R ER Diff
2009 18 169 162 7
2010 26 219 190 29
Diff +8 +50 +28 +22

So all of this once again points to the offense and pitching as being the main problem for the Swallows and not the trio of Jamie D'Antona, Aaron Guiel, and Norichika Aoki.

I did also did want to point something out with regards to D'Antona's numbers.  The jump in D'Antona's walk rate is a positive sign and actually falls in line with his career minor league numbers (about 11.1).  On the flip side, his strikeout rate is a big alarming.  His minor league career strikeout rate is 5.6, meaning he's striking out twice as much now than he used to.  A quick look at his AB/HR reveals that back in the States, he was hitting homers at a clip of about one every 25.5 at bats.  That's not a huge difference between the 20.5 he posted last year and the 21.1 he has posted so far this year, but it begs the question: has D'Antona modified his swing in order to hit more homers?

I don't think it'd be a stretch if he did, after all, the Swallows did bring him on board to provide the offense with some pop.  Unfortunately, that may have done more harm than good for D'Antona.


See also:

A statistical look at Guiel and D’Antona (and Aoki)

7 comments on “A statistical look at Guiel and D’Antona (and Aoki), Take Two

  1. Eric

    Basically confirms what I thought about Guiel in an earlier post – he’s striking out a lot and not getting a lot of hits (that .214 average is NASTY), but he’s walking a TON (one every 6.3 at bats? That’s ABSURD) so his OBP is actually higher.

    What interests me about D’Antona is that his numbers last year are about on par as this year through 51 games. If you go back and check my earlier reply, he actually posted MUCH better final numbers last year that that – I think his OPS actually wound up above .800? That must mean he went on an absolute tear last in the season. Maybe he’s just a slow starter?

    Also, the strikeout rate on D’Antona isn’t really surprising – big gaijin hitters in Japan are expected to either strike out or go upper deck, and that’s basically what D’Antona is doing. Brazell for Hanshin and Sledge for Yokohama basically do the same thing, and Brazell at least will almost certainly be an All-Star selection with his 16 homers. It’s not really statistically sound baseball, but the Japanese public expects its suketto to hit homers or nothing at all.

    Thanks for the stats though – can I ask where you got detailed breakdowns for last season? I can usually track down overall season stats in Japanese if I dig hard enough, but I haven’t found a site that gives breakdowns like that. Cheers.

  2. Steve

    There’s no defending a .700 OPS. There can’t be any blame shifting to any other player or aspect of the game – if you have a .700 OPS you are sucking hard. Maybe – MAYBE – it could be justified if the player were a total whiz of a shortstop but even then he’s a massive drag on the offense. Guiel’s numbers are quite respectable, though.

    I don’t know how Yakult can continue to trot out D’Antona with that bad of a bat, though.

  3. Eric

    Wait – the Swallows have committed 8 more errors and allowed TWENTY TWO more unearned runs this year than last? That’s just gruesome defense, and shows a bigger problem than just pitching (an extra 28 ER over 51 games is an ERA of about 0.50 over last year, which is bad but not horrible). Time to take some grounders in practice, eh.

    As for D’Antona’s 0.700 OPS, have a look at the rest of the Swallows’ offense – 0.607, including a brutal .319 slugging. They’re running D’Antona out there because they literally do not have another power bat to rely on.

  4. Steve

    I wonder how much the defense will improve now that Takada is gone? Bad results breed bad attitude breeds poor concentration – here come the errors. I guess it’s a chicken-and-egg situation but you gotta figure when the losses pile up so does the frustration, and the fundamentals break down.

    1. Gen Post author

      The Swallows actually had one of the better defenses over the three years Takada was a the helm. They ended in third in 2008, first in 2009, and they were in first this year when he stepped down. Prior to 2008: fifth in 2007, sixth in 2006, and first 2005.

    2. Eric

      Thanks Gen, I stand corrected – maybe last season was a bit of a defensive aberration on the positive side. Could it be that the Swallows made it into the Climax Series last year based on superior leatherwork? Interesting idea.

  5. Christopher Pellegrinni

    I believe that D’Antona will get going again soon. As mentioned above, his numbers are similar to the beginning of last season–ie. not good.

    But once he got enough at-bats (without being yanked every fourth day for a late-inning GIDP or because the manager was simply in a foul mood) he tore it up. You might recall that he was named Central League offensive player of the month last July. It took him a little while to find his groove, and that, no doubt, was partly attributable to the uncertainty of playing under Shigeru Takada.

    The way I see it, we’re still only six games into the season. The Takada-era isn’t far enough behind the team for the rust to have been fully kicked off yet. Allowing everyone on the club, especially D’Antona, the time and space to get things going will pay dividends.

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