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Darrell Rasner: A slightly closer look

by on Jul.14, 2010 @ 4:05 pm, under NPB

Darrell Rasner has won his last two consecutive starts in fairly convincing fashion.  Here's a closer look at some of his seasonal stats so far:

IP K/9 BB/9 H/9 BABIP BAA WHIP
90.0 7.1 3.0 8.9 .299 .256 1.32

And over his last three starts:

W-L IP K/9 BB/9 H/9 BABIP BAA WHIP
2-0 21.0 8.1 1.7 5.6 .232 .173 1.10

Here are some other, potentially interesting numbers (* denotes win/loss record in games where Rasner did not get a decision in):

GS W-L W-L* RS RA
15 3-7 3-2 58 47

A breakdown of runs scored and wins - losses (numbers in parentheses indicates results in games Rasner did not get a decision in):

RS 0 RS 0 W-L RS 1-2 RS 1-2 W-L RS 3-5 RS 3-5 W-L RS 6+ RS 6+ W-L RS 10+ RS 10+ W-L
3 0-2(1) 3 0-2(1) 5 1(1)-3 4 2(2)-0 2 1(1)-0

A breakdown of runs allowed and wins - losses (numbers in parentheses indicates results in games Rasner did not get a decision in):

RA 0 RA 0 W-L RA 1-2 RA 1-2 W-L RA 3-5 RA 3-5 W-L RS 6+ RS 6+ W-L RS 10+ RS 10+ W-L
2 1-0(1) 5 2(1)-1(1) 5 1(1)-3 3 0-3 1 0-1

And a breakdown of record based on how long Rasner pitches into games(numbers in parentheses indicates results in games Rasner did not get a decision in):

0-4 IP 5-6 IP 7-8 IP 9+ IP
0(1)-1 0(1)-6(1) 2(1)-0(1) 1-0

So while it would seem that Rasner would win more games based on a quick glance at RA and RS, a closer look reveals that in 6 of the 15 games Rasner started this year, the offense scored 2 or fewer runs 6 times.  Since Rasner allows about 3.1 total runs per start, it makes sense that he has lost all 6 of those games.

Rasner and the Eagles are also undefeated when the offense scores 6 or more runs.

Here are a couple of graphs that I thought might be of some interest:

I see it as a positive sign that his H/9 and BB/9 have dropped while his K/9 has increased.  While it isn't shown here, his WHIP (season high of 2.11 down to 1.32) and BABIP (season high of .400 down to .299) have also dropped steadily over the course of the season.

All of this point to Rasner having, at the very least, a decent second-half -- he probably won't blow anyone away, but he should hold his own.  He should also be able to rack up a couple more wins if the Eagles' offense can score some more runs for him.