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Aoki needs 41 hits in 33 games for 200

by on Aug.26, 2010 @ 2:16 am, under NPB

Norichika Aoki (YAK) recorded his fourth multi-hit game in a row by going 4-for-5 on Wednesday night. For the month of August, Aoki currently has 12 multi-hit games (out of 21).

In order to finish with 200 hits, Aoki will need to collect 41 hits over his next 33 games.

Other players that might have a shot at 200:

Player Team Current
Hit Total
Hits
Needed
Games
Left
August
Hits
Norichika Aoki YAK 159 41 33 21 G, 35-for-91
Munenori Kawasaki SOF 159 41 25 20 G, 25-for-86
Kensuke Tanaka HAM 157 43 27 19 G, 21-for-77
Tsuyoshi Nishioka LOT 157 43 28 21 G, 24-for-85
Matt Murton HAN 155 45 35 20 G, 25-for-86

Assuming about 4 at bats per game:

Player Est Remaining
At Bats
Hits
Needed
Est
AVG
Norichika Aoki 132 41 .311
Matt Murton 140 45 .321
Tsuyoshi Nishioka 112 43 .384
Kensuke Tanaka 108 43 .398
Munenori Kawasaki 100 41 .410

Based on the numbers, Aoki probably has the best chance, followed by Murton. Kawasaki, Tanaka, and Nishioka probably won't be able to reach 200 unless they go on some crazy hitting streaks.

4 comments on “Aoki needs 41 hits in 33 games for 200

  1. Eric Lord

    Thing is that the Tigers have a deeper lineup 1-9. This means Murton often gets more than 4 ABs a game, and will probably have way more cracks at the ball than Aoki will from here on out. That said, he’s been a little hit and miss lately. Should be interesting to see how this plays out.

    1. Gen Post author

      Murton probably will see more at bats, but I figured I’d just stick to one number for all 5 players to keep the math simple.

      For those interested:

      Aoki is averaging about 4.1 at bats per game and 4.9 plate appearances per game this year.

      Murton is averaging about 4.3 at bats per game and 4.7 plate appearances per game this year.

      EDIT: oops, that should be 4.6 PA/G instead of 4.9 for Aoki.

  2. Eric Lord

    Wow, I thought those numbers would be more skewed in Murton’s favour. Murton spent some time in the 3-hole in the middle of the season, so that probably hurt his numbers a bit, whereas I’m pretty sure Aoki has been sitting at the top of the Swallows’ order all year? Still, though, thanks for giving the digits – that’s a really interesting stat, and now what I was expecting.

    1. Gen Post author

      I was sort of thinking the same thing, but if you look at the team totals, the Swallows aren’t too far off from Tigers in plate appearances.

      As of now, the Swallows have 4,313 plate appearances in 111 games (or about 38.9 PA/G) vs the Tigers 4,265 plate appearances in 109 (or about 39.1 PA/G).

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