Aoki needs 41 hits in 33 games for 200
by Gen on Aug.26, 2010 @ 2:16 am, under NPB
Norichika Aoki (YAK) recorded his fourth multi-hit game in a row by going 4-for-5 on Wednesday night. For the month of August, Aoki currently has 12 multi-hit games (out of 21).
In order to finish with 200 hits, Aoki will need to collect 41 hits over his next 33 games.
Other players that might have a shot at 200:
| Player | Team | Current Hit Total | Hits Needed | Games Left | August Hits |
| Norichika Aoki | YAK | 159 | 41 | 33 | 21 G, 35-for-91 |
| Munenori Kawasaki | SOF | 159 | 41 | 25 | 20 G, 25-for-86 |
| Kensuke Tanaka | HAM | 157 | 43 | 27 | 19 G, 21-for-77 |
| Tsuyoshi Nishioka | LOT | 157 | 43 | 28 | 21 G, 24-for-85 |
| Matt Murton | HAN | 155 | 45 | 35 | 20 G, 25-for-86 |
Assuming about 4 at bats per game:
| Player | Est Remaining At Bats | Hits Needed | Est AVG |
| Norichika Aoki | 132 | 41 | .311 |
| Matt Murton | 140 | 45 | .321 |
| Tsuyoshi Nishioka | 112 | 43 | .384 |
| Kensuke Tanaka | 108 | 43 | .398 |
| Munenori Kawasaki | 100 | 41 | .410 |
Based on the numbers, Aoki probably has the best chance, followed by Murton. Kawasaki, Tanaka, and Nishioka probably won't be able to reach 200 unless they go on some crazy hitting streaks.
August 26th, 2010 on 11:56 am
Thing is that the Tigers have a deeper lineup 1-9. This means Murton often gets more than 4 ABs a game, and will probably have way more cracks at the ball than Aoki will from here on out. That said, he’s been a little hit and miss lately. Should be interesting to see how this plays out.
August 26th, 2010 on 12:32 pm
Murton probably will see more at bats, but I figured I’d just stick to one number for all 5 players to keep the math simple.
For those interested:
Aoki is averaging about 4.1 at bats per game and 4.9 plate appearances per game this year.
Murton is averaging about 4.3 at bats per game and 4.7 plate appearances per game this year.
EDIT: oops, that should be 4.6 PA/G instead of 4.9 for Aoki.
August 26th, 2010 on 4:36 pm
Wow, I thought those numbers would be more skewed in Murton’s favour. Murton spent some time in the 3-hole in the middle of the season, so that probably hurt his numbers a bit, whereas I’m pretty sure Aoki has been sitting at the top of the Swallows’ order all year? Still, though, thanks for giving the digits – that’s a really interesting stat, and now what I was expecting.
August 26th, 2010 on 5:12 pm
I was sort of thinking the same thing, but if you look at the team totals, the Swallows aren’t too far off from Tigers in plate appearances.
As of now, the Swallows have 4,313 plate appearances in 111 games (or about 38.9 PA/G) vs the Tigers 4,265 plate appearances in 109 (or about 39.1 PA/G).