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NPB countdown to 200 hits, September 2 update

by on Sep.02, 2010 @ 4:19 pm, under NPB

With under 30 games remaining for both the Hanshin Tigers (29) and Yakult Swallows (27), I thought it might be time for another countdown to 200 hits post.

The numbers:

Player G PA AB H GR AB/G
Matt Murton 115 534 495 170 29 4.3
Norichika Aoki 117 546 479 168 27 4.1

The estimates:

Player Estimated
At Bats
Hits
Needed
Needs to bat
at least
Matt Murton 125 30 .240
Norichika Aoki 111 32 .288

Assuming the current rate at which the two players are hitting, Murton is on pace the finish the season with 213 hits and Aoki 207 hits.

Murton's 170 hits ties George Altman (set in 1968) for second on the single season hit list for first year foreign players.  Phil Clark sits atop of the single season hit list for first year foreign players with 174 (set in 1997).

Murton also has a shot at breaking the NPB record of 210 hits set by Ichiro Suzuki in 1994.

4 comments on “NPB countdown to 200 hits, September 2 update

  1. Steve

    Kensuke Tanaka and Tsuyoshi Nishioka both have a reasonable shot at 200 hits. Tanaka needs 33 in 22 games and Tsuyoshi needs 34 in 22. Based on their current AB/Game and BA, Tanaka would end with 197 and Nishioka with 196…

    Munenori Kawasaki also has an outside chance but has 3 less games than the other two to do it.

    1. Gen Post author

      You’re right. I probably should have included Tanaka and Nishioka, but I just felt as if their chances were fairly poor in comparison to Aoki and Murton.

      For those interested:

      Tanaka
      AB/G: 4.0
      Estimated ABs: 88
      Hits Needed: 33
      Needs to hit at least .375
      At current pace: 197

      Nishioka
      AB/G: 4.1
      Estimated ABs: 90
      Hits Needed: 34
      Needs to hit at least .378
      At current pace: 196

      Kawasaki
      AB/G: 4.2
      Estimated ABs: 80
      Hits Needed: 34
      Needs to hit at least .425
      At current pace: 191

    1. Gen Post author

      Nishioka has been stringing together some fairly impressive hitting performances recently. If he can keep it up, he certainly has a great chance.

      For what it’s worth, the Marines schedule this month and Nishioka’s performances against them:

      Eagles 4 games – 27-for-72 (.375)
      Buffaloes 4 games – 21-for-77 (.273)
      Hawks 4 games – 19-for-79 (.241)
      Fighters 3 games – 33-for-88 (.375)
      Seibu 3 games – 31-for-90 (.344)

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