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Lions have a 93% chance of winning the PL?

by on Sep.06, 2010 @ 12:11 pm, under NPB

The Seibu Lions beat the Rakuten Eagles yesterday and became the first team to win 70 games in the NPB this season.  For the Lions, it was the 15th time (first since 2008) they became the first team to 70 victories in the PL and the 9th time (first since 2002) they became the first team to 70 victories in either league.  And according to Sponichi, over the last 14 seasons, the first team to 70 victories in the PL have gone on to win the league 13 times (or 93%).


8 comments on “Lions have a 93% chance of winning the PL?

  1. Steve

    Bad conclusion from the stats. The fact that 13 of the last 14 to 70 wins first have won the PL does not suggest there is a 93% chance of them winning the PL. There’s only been a PL playoff for 6 of those 14 years, and the season hasn’t even been the same length for all of those years!

    1. Gen Post author

      Don’t shoot the messenger (I’ve always found these conclusions to be somewhat amusing and that’s the only reason why I post them on occasion).

      BTW: if I’m not mistaken, the playoffs don’t have anything to do with who is the league champion. The league champion and the playoff winner are two separate categories.

  2. Deanna

    Perhaps Steve is merely pointing out that it’s an idiotic conclusion, not shooting the messenger. Since we can’t exactly post comments to Sponichi, this is as good as any place to say how stupid it is.

    Though, “for your readers”, perhaps you should clarify that they’re talking about winning 1st place in the league, then.

    1. Gen Post author

      I’m not exactly sure why you’re putting quotation marks around “for your readers” because it seems to me like you’re belittling me. Unless I’m reading your usage of the quotes incorrectly.

      Incidentally, when I said “win the league,” I meant win first place, not become the team that proceeds to the Nippon Series, which is what the playoffs decide.

  3. yakyualways

    Gen, your site is AMAZING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    Thank you for all your FANTASTIC work.
    I know it is hard work, but there are many people all over the world that really appreciate your site.
    People thank me for introducing them to this site.

  4. Deanna

    It was a reference to something Gen said several months ago, in a post that no longer seems to exist here, where I pointed out that it was obvious the Giants would want to draft Tomoyuki Sugano because he is awesome and he is also Hara’s nephew, and Gen said that “well, my readers wouldn’t know that, so don’t go saying it’s obvious”.

    Seemed like an odd position at the time to take, both claiming that it’s not fair to assume anyone knows these things, when at the same time, one really needs plenty of context to understand these 2-sentence summaries of Sponichi articles in general, I think. Of course, he might have a particular readership in mind…

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